Trajectories of body mass index and diabetes mellitus risk among elderly Chinese adults: A 10‐year longitudinal study
Authors' conclusion
Among 148 970 participants, normoglycaemic elderly with increased BMI trajectories showed elevated DM and IFG risks in groups with underweight and normal weight. Regardless of the BMI trajectory, the risk of DM was increased in both the obese and overweight groups. For IFG elderly, the highest DM incidence was presented in the decreasing trajectories.
Study context
- Population
- Elderly Chinese adults; normoglycaemic elderly for diabetes mellitus (DM) and impaired fasting glucose (IFG) risk; IFG elderly for progression to DM and reversion to normoglycaemia
- Participants
- 148,970 adults
- Exposure
- Body mass index (BMI) trajectories vs normal weight-stable trajectory
- Outcome
- Incidence of DM or IFG among normoglycaemic elderly by BMI trajectory
Methodological detailsgroup-based trajectory modelling, Cox proportional hazards regression
- Group-based trajectory modelling
- Cox proportional hazards regression
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
DM risk in normoglycaemic elderly (highest-risk trajectories)
Each group vs normal weight-stableAdjusted hazard ratio (95% CI)
Obese-pronounced decrease
2.70(2.35–3.11)
Obese-marginal increase
2.55(2.28–2.86)
Obese-minor decrease
2.41(2.24–2.60)
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
| Outcome | Adjusted HR (95% CI) | |
|---|---|---|
| IFG risk in normoglycaemic elderly (highest-risk trajectories)Obese-marginal increasevs Normal weight-stable | 2.26 (2.08–2.45) | |
| IFG risk in normoglycaemic elderly (highest-risk trajectories)Obese-minor decreasevs Normal weight-stable | 1.96 (1.86–2.07) | |
| IFG risk in normoglycaemic elderly (highest-risk trajectories)Overweight-moderate increasevs Normal weight-stable | 1.91 (1.79–2.04) | |
| 0.512Adjusted hazard ratio (log scale) |
Original publication
Trajectories of body mass index and diabetes mellitus risk among elderly Chinese adults: A 10‐year longitudinal study. Diabetes Obes Metab. Published 17 June 2025. doi:10.
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