The global burden of early-onset type 2 diabetes mellitus caused by high body-mass index from 1990 to 2021 and projection to 2050
Authors' conclusion
The burden is constantly rising and is expected to continue increasing in the future. The burden shows differences based on age, gender, and SDI. Therefore, targeted interventions should be developed for specific populations.
Study context
- Population
- Global population with early-onset T2D attributable to high Body-Mass Index (BMI), 1990–2021
Methodological detailsJoinpoint regression, slope index and concentration index, Bayesian age-period-cohort projection to 2050
- Joinpoint regression
- Slope index and concentration index
- Bayesian age-period-cohort projection to 2050
Primary result
As reported in the abstract
2021
ASMR per 100,000
0.61
95% UI 0.35 to 0.79
ASDR per 100,000
153.88
95% UI 83.85 to 222.19
Further findings
Trend in ASMR and ASDR (average annual percentage change (AAPC)) · 1990 to 2021
- AAPC of ASMR
- 1.06 (95% CI 1.00 to 1.13)
- AAPC of ASDR
- 2.79 (95% CI 2.75 to 2.82)
Health inequality by SDI
- High SDI countries had smaller burdens, and the inequality trend worsened
Projected burden to 2050 · 2022 to 2050
- Global burden expected to continue to rise
Original publication
The global burden of early-onset type 2 diabetes mellitus caused by high body-mass index from 1990 to 2021 and projection to 2050. Diabetes Res Clin Pract. Published 8 July 2025. doi:10.
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