Obesity

Prospective Association Between Weight Variability and Subsequent Long‐Term Weight Loss in the CALERIE Study

Obesity (Silver Spring)Published Secondary analysis of the CALERIE randomised trial

Authors' conclusion

Short-term WV predicted lower subsequent weight loss in adults without obesity.

Study context

Population
Adults without obesity following a 25% caloric restriction diet over 2 years in the CALERIE study
Participants
143 adults
Primary endpoint
Subsequent weight loss (weight at month 3 minus later weights) predicted by short-term WV (root-mean-squared-error of weights over first 12 weeks), adjusted for baseline BMI, 12-week weight change and demographics
Follow-up
6, 12, 18 and 24 months relative to month 3
Methodological detailsprospective, multilevel models
  • Prospective
  • Multilevel models

Primary result

As reported in the abstract

Association of higher WV with subsequent weight loss · 6 months
Higher weight variability (WV) associated with less subsequent weight loss: B
−0.38 [−0.63, −0.13] (95% CI)
Standardised β
−0.16
P
p = 0.003

Further findings

Interaction between time and WV not significant; association suggested to extend through year 1

Original publication

Prospective Association Between Weight Variability and Subsequent Long‐Term Weight Loss in the CALERIE Study. Obesity (Silver Spring). Published 18 June 2026. doi:10.1002/oby.70235

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