Obesity

Prevalence and changes of childhood overweight across China and its provinces from 2000 to 2030

Int J Obes (Lond)Published Modelling study of geostatistical estimates with trend analysis and projection

Authors' conclusion

Childhood obesity in China has become a major public health problem with a steadily rising prevalence. This study underscores the urgent need for evidence-based policy and clinical interventions to stem the tide of obesity in Chinese preschool children.

Study context

Population
Children under 5 years of age across China and its provinces, 2000–2019 (Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) estimates)
Outcome
Prevalence of childhood overweight (including obesity)
Follow-up
2000 to 2019, projected to 2030
Methodological detailsmodel-based geostatistical approach, 5 × 5 km resolution, Joinpoint Regression, polynomial regression projection
  • Model-based geostatistical approach
  • 5 × 5 km resolution
  • Joinpoint Regression
  • Polynomial regression projection

Main finding

As reported in the abstract

Overweight prevalence among children under 5 years · 2000 to 2019

Overweight prevalence in 2000

17.9%

95% CI 14.9 to 21.3

Overweight prevalence in 2019

22.1%

95% CI 14.9 to 30.9

Further findings

Projected overweight prevalence · up to 2030

Projected share of children in China overweight by 2030
25.1% (95% CI: 23.2 to 27.0)

Provinces on track to meet China's obesity prevention and control targets by 2030

Provinces on track (Shanxi and Inner Mongolia), of 31
2

Overweight burden across 33 provincial-level administrative units · 2000 to 2019

Greatest burdens in northeastern China and Hunan, Hong Kong and Macao

Original publication

Prevalence and changes of childhood overweight across China and its provinces from 2000 to 2030. Int J Obes (Lond). Published 27 June 2025. doi:10.1038/s41366-025-01813-6

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