Prediction of heart failure as the first major cardiovascular disease event in type 2 diabetes
Authors' conclusion
CVD that presents first as a HF event is common in type 2 diabetes and its risk factors are distinct from those associated with CVD that presents first as an ASCVD event.
Study context
- Population
- ORIGIN and REWIND participants with T2D free of cardiovascular disease (CVD); 64 ± 7 years, 50.1% female
- Participants
- 6,175 participants
- Comparison
- Risk factors for CVD presenting first as heart failure (HF) vs as ASCVD
- Primary endpoint
- Incident CVD presenting first as HF event (HF hospitalization or HF death), ASCVD (MI, unstable angina, stroke, or revascularization), or other cardiovascular death
- Follow-up
- ≈5.8 years
Methodological detailscohort analysis, multi-state models
- Cohort analysis
- Multi-state models
Primary result
As reported in the abstract
First CVD event type among 1024 incident CVD cases
HF as first event
16.8%
ASCVD as first event
65.2%
Probability of HF as first CVD event, profile enriched with HF-specific risk factors
32.0%
Probability of HF as first CVD event, profile enriched with ASCVD-specific risk factors
5.1%
Original publication
Prediction of heart failure as the first major cardiovascular disease event in type 2 diabetes. Diabetes Obes Metab. Published 13 January 2026. doi:10.
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