A Novel Kidney Failure Prediction Model in Individuals With Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD): Impact of Serum Bilirubin Levels
Authors' conclusion
Serum bilirubin levels were strong predictors for the progression of CKD to ESKD. Our novel model that incorporates serum bilirubin levels could accurately predict ESKD in individuals with CKD.
Study context
- Population
- Individuals with CKD (15 ≤ eGFR < 60 mL/min/1.73 m²) followed at Kyushu University Hospital, Japan, 2008–2018development cohort
- Participants
- 4,103 individuals
- Outcome
- Incident ESKD (eGFR < 15 mL/min/1.73 m², chronic dialysis, or renal transplantation)
Methodological detailsdevelopment and validation cohorts, single-centre development cohort
- Development and validation cohorts
- Single-centre development cohort
Performance
As reported in the abstract
ESKD prediction model
Cox model selected, in order of importance: eGFR, serum bilirubin, proteinuria, age, diabetes, gender, hypertension, serum albumin, hemoglobin
9 variables
Validation cohort 2-year AUC
0.943
Validation cohort 5-year AUC
0.935
Further findings
Progression to end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) · mean follow-up 7.0 ± 4.2 years
- Progressed to ESKD
- 489 (11.9%)
Original publication
A Novel Kidney Failure Prediction Model in Individuals With CKD: Impact of Serum Bilirubin Levels. J Clin Endocrinol Metab. Published 24 June 2024. doi:10.
Composed by AI from the published abstract and checked against it. How Briefs are made →