Predicting 10‐year risk of type 2 diabetes in Chinese people with overweight or obesity treated with Tirzepatide: Post hoc analysis of SURMOUNT ‐ CN trial
Authors' conclusion
Tirzepatide was associated with significantly reduced predicted 10-year risk of T2D among SURMOUNT-CN participants with obesity or overweight, irrespective of baseline BMI and prediabetes status.
Study context
- Population
- Chinese participants with obesity or overweight from the SURMOUNT-CN trial
- Participants
- 59 / 53 / 57
- Comparison
- Tirzepatide 10 mg or 15 mg vs placebo
- Tirzepatide 10 mgn = 59
- Tirzepatide 15 mgn = 53
- Placebon = 57reference
- Primary endpoint
- Change in 10-year predicted T2D risk (QDiabetes-2018 risk engine)
- Follow-up
- Baseline to week 52
Methodological detailspost hoc analysis
- Post hoc analysis
Primary result
As reported in the abstract
LS mean predicted 10-year T2D risk change
Each group vs placeboDifference in LS mean risk change, % (95% CI)
Tirzepatide 10 mg
−3.2(−4.2% to −2.2%)
Tirzepatide 15 mg
−3.4(−4.4% to −2.4%)
- Tirzepatide 10 mg: Least square (LS) mean predicted T2D risk from baseline to week 52
- 5.3% to 1.2%
- Tirzepatide 15 mg: LS mean predicted T2D risk from baseline to week 52
- 4.9% to 1.0%
- Placebo: LS mean predicted T2D risk from baseline to week 52
- 5.8% to 4.5%
Further findings
Predicted risk reduction in subgroups by baseline BMI and prediabetes status
- Significantly greater predicted risk reductions for tirzepatide than placebo in all subgroups
Original publication
Predicting 10‐year risk of type 2 diabetes in Chinese people with overweight or obesity treated with Tirzepatide: Post hoc analysis of SURMOUNT ‐ CN trial. Diabetes Obes Metab. Published 6 May 2025. doi:10. 1111/ dom. 16439
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