Type 2 & other diabetes

Prediabetes Subgroups, Type 2 Diabetes Risk, and Differential Effects of Preventive Interventions

J Clin Endocrinol MetabPublished Secondary analysis of the Diabetes Prevention Program randomised trial

Primary result · Diabetes riskResult — go to the resultHazard ratio 1.58 95% CI 1.31–1.91

Authors' conclusion

Pathophysiologically distinct prediabetes subgroups differ in risk for diabetes and preventive benefit from metformin. These results support distinct mechanisms of diabetes susceptibility; however, the use of clinical prediction models to guide treatment decisions may provide adequate risk profiling.

Study context

Population
Participants with prediabetes in the Diabetes Prevention Program trial; subgroups derived from 22 clinical biomarkers (sex-standardized)
Participants
3,145 participants
Comparison
Prediabetes subgroup 1 vs subgroup 2; intensive lifestyle or metformin vs placebo within subgroups
Primary endpoint
Incident diabetes by prediabetes subgroup and differential intervention effects (intensive lifestyle, metformin, placebo)
Methodological detailsK-means clustering, Cox proportional hazards regression
  • K-means clustering
  • Cox proportional hazards regression

Primary result

Diabetes risk

Hazard ratio

1.58

95% CI 1.31–1.91

Subgroup 1vs Subgroup 2
HR 1.58 (95% CI 1.31–1.91)

As reported in the abstract

Metformin gave greater benefit to subgroup 1 vs subgroup 2
P for interaction < 0.05

Further findings

Risk discrimination

A clinical variable model discriminated diabetes risk better than the clustering strategy

Original publication

Prediabetes Subgroups, Type 2 Diabetes Risk, and Differential Effects of Preventive Interventions. J Clin Endocrinol Metab. Published 11 June 2025. doi:10.1210/clinem/dgaf350

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