Prediabetes as a risk factor for new-onset atrial fibrillation: the propensity-score matching cohort analyzed using the Cox regression model coupled with the random survival forest
Main finding · AFResult — go to the resultHazard ratio 1.24 95% CI 1.11–1.39Authors' conclusion
Our study found that prediabetes is independently associated with a higher risk of AF. Furthermore, alterations in left heart structure make a significant contribution to this elevated risk, and these structural changes may begin during the prediabetes stage.
Study context
- Population
- Adult patients, electronic medical records of National Taiwan University Hospital, 2014–2019
- Participants
- 174,835 patients14,309 matched pairs
- Exposure
- Prediabetes vs normal glucose test
- Prediabetesn = 14,309
- Normal glucose testn = 14,309reference
- Outcome
- New-onset AF
- Follow-up
- Median 47.1 months
Methodological detailspropensity-score matched 1:1, single-centre (tertiary medical center), random survival forest machine learning
- Propensity-score matched 1:1
- Single-centre (tertiary medical center)
- Random survival forest machine learning
Main finding
AF
Hazard ratio
1.24
95% CI 1.11–1.39
P < 0.001
Prediabetesvs Normal glucose test
HR 1.24 (95% CI 1.11–1.39); P < 0.001
As reported in the abstract
- Incidence of atrial fibrillation (AF) (overall)
- 11.6 cases per 1000 person-years
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Factors associated with AF in prediabetes (random survival forest (RSF))
- Elevated N-terminal natriuretic peptide and altered left heart structure were the two most important risk factors
Original publication
Prediabetes as a risk factor for new-onset atrial fibrillation: the propensity-score matching cohort analyzed using the Cox regression model coupled with the random survival forest. Cardiovasc Diabetol. Published 20 February 2023. doi:10.
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