Prediabetes and Risk of All-Cause and Cause-Specific Mortality: A Prospective Study of 114 062 Adults in Mexico City
Authors' conclusion
Prediabetes is a significant risk factor for all-cause, cardiovascular, renal, and acute diabetic deaths in Mexican adults. Early identification and timely management of prediabetes among individuals at risk of this condition could reduce premature mortality in this population.
Study context
- Population
- Adults without diabetes (diagnosed or undiagnosed), Mexico City Prospective Study; deaths at ages 35 to 74 years
- Participants
- 114,062 adults
- Exposure
- Prediabetes vs no prediabetes
- Outcome
- All-cause and cause-specific mortality at ages 35 to 74 years
- Follow-up
- Median 18.4 (IQR 17.6-19.7) years
Methodological detailsCox regression adjusted for confounders
- Cox regression adjusted for confounders
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
All-cause mortality at ages 35 to 74 · median 18.4 years
Each group vs no prediabetesRelative risk (CI)
ADA-defined prediabetes
1.13(1.07–1.20)
IEC-defined prediabetes
1.27(1.17–1.38)
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
| Outcome | RR (CI) | |
|---|---|---|
| Cardiovascular mortalityADA-defined prediabetesvs No prediabetes | 1.23 (1.11–1.37) | |
| Cardiovascular mortalityIEC-defined prediabetesvs No prediabetes | 1.44 (1.24–1.67) | |
| Renal mortalityADA-defined prediabetesvs No prediabetes | 1.33 (1.06–1.66) | |
| Renal mortalityIEC-defined prediabetesvs No prediabetes | 1.62 (1.18–2.23) | |
| Acute diabetic deathsADA-defined prediabetesvs No prediabetes | 2.62 (1.75–3.93) | |
| Acute diabetic deathsIEC-defined prediabetesvs No prediabetes | 3.42 (2.09–5.61) | |
| 0.20.5125Relative risk (log scale) |
Share of deaths at ages 35 to 74 accounted for by absolute excess risk of prediabetes
- American Diabetes Association (ADA)-defined: cardiovascular deaths
- 7%
- ADA-defined: renal deaths
- 9%
- ADA-defined: acute diabetic deaths
- 31%
- International Expert Committee (IEC)-defined: cardiovascular deaths
- 4%
- IEC-defined: renal deaths
- 5%
- IEC-defined: acute diabetic deaths
- 14%
Role of adiposity
- Prediabetes-associated excess mortality risks were, at least in part, explained by adiposity
Original publication
Prediabetes and Risk of All-Cause and Cause-Specific Mortality: A Prospective Study of 114 062 Adults in Mexico City. J Clin Endocrinol Metab. Published 10 April 2025. doi:10.
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