Long-term cumulative exposure and longitudinal profiles of the cholesterol, high density lipoprotein, and glucose (CHG) index, versus the metabolic score for insulin resistance (METS-IR) for incident heart failure risk: A prospective cohort study
Authors' conclusion
Higher cumulative exposure and persistently unfavorable profiles of CHG and METS-IR were independently associated with increased incident HF. Individuals with elevated levels of both indices had the highest risk of HF, suggesting that their concomitant elevation may reflect a greater cardiometabolic burden and highlighting the importance of comprehensive cardiometabolic risk management in HF prevention.
Study context
- Population
- Participants aged 20–98 years from the Kailuan Study who completed three consecutive health examinations between 2006 and 2015participants included
- Participants
- 71,078 participants
- Exposure
- Time-weighted cumulative measures and longitudinal profiles of CHG and METS-IR in relation to incident heart failure (HF)
- Outcome
- Incident HF events
- Follow-up
- Median 12.78 years
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Incident HF events documented
1,803
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
| Outcome | HR (95 % CI) | |
|---|---|---|
| Incident HF per 1-SD increment in TW-cumCHGMultivariable-adjusted model | 1.27 (1.21–1.33) | |
| Incident HF per 1-SD increment in TW-cumMETS-IRMultivariable-adjusted model | 1.37 (1.28–1.48) | |
| 0.512Hazard ratio (log scale) |
Incident HF with jointly elevated TW-cumCHG and TW-cumMETS-IR
| HR (95 % CI) | ||
|---|---|---|
| Jointly elevated TW-cumCHG and TW-cumMETS-IRHighest risk of incident HF | 1.71 (1.51–1.94) | |
| 0.512Hazard ratio (log scale) |
Longitudinal profiles of CHG and METS-IR and HF risk
- K-means clustering identified three distinct longitudinal profiles for both CHG and METS-IR, with the persistently high groups exhibiting the greatest HF risk
Original publication
Long-term cumulative exposure and longitudinal profiles of the cholesterol, high density lipoprotein, and glucose (CHG) index, versus the metabolic score for insulin resistance (METS-IR) for incident heart failure risk: A prospective cohort study. Diabetes Res Clin Pract. Published 13 November 2026. doi:10.
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