Leisure‐Time Physical Activity on Age‐Modelled Trajectories of Body Mass Index and Obesity Risk Throughout Life: Multivariable Regression and Mendelian Randomization Analyses Using Electronic Health Record Data From the CORDELIA ‐Catalunya Study
Main finding · Obesity onset by LTPAResult — go to the resultHazard ratio 0.83 95% CI 0.72–0.96Authors' conclusion
Higher LTPA and MVLTPA were associated with more favourable lifelong BMI trajectories, delayed obesity risk, and convergent support from Mendelian randomisation analyses, supporting a causal protective role of physical activity (in both sexes but stronger in men).
Study context
- Population
- Adults aged 30–90 years (52.7% women) from REGICOR-ACRISC, ILERVAS and ARTPER cohorts, with 120,352 repeated BMI measurements from EHR (1990–2024)pooled cohorts
- Participants
- 14,993 adults
- Exposure
- Higher vs lower LTPA quartiles
- Outcome
- Age-related BMI trajectories and incident obesity (first BMI ≥ 30 kg/m²)
Methodological detailselectronic health record data, spline mixed-effects models, IPW-weighted Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox models
- Electronic health record data
- Spline mixed-effects models
- IPW-weighted Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox models
Main finding
Obesity onset by LTPA
Hazard ratio
0.83
95% CI 0.72–0.96
Q4vs Q1
HR 0.83 (95% CI 0.72–0.96)
As reported in the abstract
- BMI change, ages 30-60: Q1 vs Q4 (kg/m²·year)
- +0.120 vs. +0.075
- BMI change, ages 70-90: Q1 vs Q4 (kg/m²·year)
- −0.143 vs. −0.123
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
| Outcome | HR (CI) | |
|---|---|---|
| Genetically determined cardiorespiratory fitness (Mendelian randomisation), obesity onset and BMI changePolygenic risk score quartiles | 0.66 (0.56–0.78) | |
| 0.512Hazard ratio (log scale) |
- Genetically determined cardiorespiratory fitness (Mendelian randomisation), obesity onset and BMI change — BMI change, ages 30-60: Q1 vs Q4 (kg/m²·year)
- +0.109 vs. +0.101
- Genetically determined cardiorespiratory fitness (Mendelian randomisation), obesity onset and BMI change — BMI change, ages 70-90: Q1 vs Q4 (kg/m²·year)
- −0.130 vs. −0.102
MVLTPA
- Similar trends were observed for MVLTPA
By sex
- Associations present for women and men separately, but stronger in men
Original publication
Leisure‐Time Physical Activity on Age‐Modelled Trajectories of Body Mass Index and Obesity Risk Throughout Life: Multivariable Regression and Mendelian Randomization Analyses Using Electronic Health Record Data From the CORDELIA ‐Catalunya Study. Diabetes Obes Metab. Published 9 July 2026. doi:10.
Composed by AI from the published abstract and checked against it. How Briefs are made →