Is COVID-19 to Blame? Trends of Incidence and Sex Ratio in Youth-Onset Type 2 Diabetes in Germany
Main finding · T2D incidence, 2021Result — go to the resultIncidence rate ratio 1.41 95% CI 1.12–1.77Authors' conclusion
In Germany, incidence of pediatric T2D increased significantly in 2021. Adolescent boys were more affected by this increase, resulting in a reversal of the sex ratio of youth-onset T2D.
Study context
- Population
- Children aged 6 to <18 years with T2D, DPV (German Diabetes Prospective Follow-up) Registry, Germany
- Exposure
- Observed incidence in 2020 and 2021 vs incidence predicted from 2011–2019
- Outcome
- Incidence of pediatric T2D during the COVID-19 pandemic vs control period 2011–2019
- Follow-up
- 2020 and 2021
Methodological detailsPoisson regression, observed vs predicted incidence
- Poisson regression
- Observed vs predicted incidence
Main finding
T2D incidence, 2021
Incidence rate ratio
1.41
95% CI 1.12–1.77
By group
Observedvs Predicted
IRR 1.41 (95% CI 1.12–1.77)
As reported in the abstract
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
| Outcome | Observed | IRR (95% CI) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| T2D incidence, 2020 | 1.49 (CI 1.23–1.81) per 100,000 PYs | 1.15 (0.90–1.48) | |
| T2D incidence in boys, 2021Significantly exceeded predicted rate | 2.16 (CI 1.73–2.70) per 100,000 PYs | 1.55 (1.14–2.12) | |
| 0.512Incidence rate ratio (log scale) |
T2D incidence trend 2011–2019
- Incidence 2011
- 0.75 (per 100,000 patient-years (PYs); 95% CI 0.58, 0.93)
- Incidence 2019
- 1.25 (per 100,000 PYs; 95% CI 1.02, 1.48)
- Annual increase
- 6.8% (95% CI 4.1, 9.6)
T2D incidence in boys, 2021
- No significant increase in incidence in girls in 2021; reversal of sex ratio of pediatric T2D incidence
Original publication
Is COVID-19 to Blame? Trends of Incidence and Sex Ratio in Youth-Onset Type 2 Diabetes in Germany. Diabetes Care. Published 4 May 2023. doi:10.
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