Global inequalities in premature mortality from type 1 diabetes: Country-level forecasting and a mortality-to-incidence ratio–based policy-gap analysis to 2030
Authors' conclusion
Global progress in reducing premature T1DM mortality appears insufficient and highly unequal.
Study context
- Population
- Adults aged 30–69 years; age-standardized T1D incidence and mortality estimates, 2000 to 2021countries and territories
- Participants
- 204 adults
- Comparison
- Income groups
- Outcome
- Historical median MIR
- Follow-up
- 2000 to 2021
Methodological detailscountry-level, XGBoost-based recursive forecasting, temporal backtesting, rolling-origin validation, benchmark comparisons, leave-one-country-out cross-validation
- Country-level
- XGBoost-based recursive forecasting
- Temporal backtesting, rolling-origin validation, benchmark comparisons, leave-one-country-out cross-validation
Performance
As reported in the abstract
High-income
0.142
median
Low-income
0.646
median
Lower-middle-income
0.640
median
Upper-middle-income
0.566
median
Further findings
Probability of attaining SDG 3.4-aligned T1D mortality-reduction benchmark by 2030
- Countries and territories with ≥50 % benchmark-attainment probability
- 14 of 204
- High-confidence achievers
- 5
- High-confidence non-attainers
- 158
Model performance
- XGBoost showed low validation errors for incidence, mortality, and mortality-to-incidence ratio (MIR)
Original publication
Global inequalities in premature mortality from type 1 diabetes: Country-level forecasting and a mortality-to-incidence ratio–based policy-gap analysis to 2030. Diabetes Res Clin Pract. Published 29 September 2026. doi:10.
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