Global burden of chronic kidney disease due to type 2 diabetes in adults from 1990 to 2021, with exploratory projections to 2036: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
Authors' conclusion
Driven by demographic shifts and metabolic risks, global CKD-T2D burden is rising.
Study context
- Population
- Adults aged ≥20 years with CKD due to T2D, globally, 1990–2021
- Outcome
- Change in global age-standardized incidence, mortality and DALY rates per 100,000 of CKD-T2D
- Follow-up
- 1990 to 2021
Methodological detailsdecomposition analysis, age-period-cohort modeling, ARIMA forecasting (2022-2036), frontier analysis
- Decomposition analysis
- Age-period-cohort modeling
- ARIMA forecasting (2022-2036)
- Frontier analysis
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Global age-standardized rates per 100,000 of adult CKD-T2D
Increase in age-standardized incidence rate
56.4%
Increase in age-standardized mortality rate
88.7%
Increase in age-standardized DALY rate
60.1%
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Sex and age patterns
- Burden was higher in males
- Peak incidence at ages 75-79
- Peak mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) at ≥95 years
Drivers and risk factors
- Population growth and aging were primary drivers (decomposition analysis)
- High BMI, elevated fasting glucose and hypertension were main metabolic risks
Projections and frontier analysis · by 2036
- ARIMA projections indicated continued rises in ASR and absolute counts
- Disproportionately high burden in high SDI regions
Original publication
Global burden of chronic kidney disease due to type 2 diabetes in adults from 1990 to 2021, with exploratory projections to 2036: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Diabetes Res Clin Pract. Published 26 May 2026. doi:10.
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