Fracture probability is predictive of fall-associated hospitalization: the Manitoba BMD Registry
Authors' conclusion
In conclusion, FRAX-derived fracture probability is strongly associated with risk for future fall-associated hospitalization, including falls unrelated to concurrent fracture.
Study context
- Population
- Individuals aged ≥40 yr with baseline DXA and FRAX-derived major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) probability, Manitoba BMD Program; mean age 64.6 yr, 89.5% female
- Participants
- 88,684 individuals
- Exposure
- FRAX-derived MOF probability, without and with BMD
- Outcome
- Time to fall-associated hospitalization (hospitalization with a fall diagnosis code)
- Follow-up
- Mean 8.6 yr observation
Methodological detailspopulation-based, registry linkage
- Population-based
- Registry linkage
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Fall-associated hospitalization per SD increase in MOF probability · mean 8.6 yr
HR per SD increase in MOF probability, without BMD
2.47
95% CI 2.41–2.52
HR per SD increase in MOF probability, with BMD
2.48
95% CI 2.43–2.53
Individuals with a fall-associated hospitalization
9715
11.0%
Fall-associated hospitalizations unrelated to concurrent fracture
3363
3.8%
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Interaction between fracture probability and follow-up time
- No significant interaction
- P = 0.516
Sensitivity and additional analyses
- Findings similar for falls unrelated to concurrent fracture, after adjustment for previous fall-associated hospitalization (last 3 yr) or self-reported fall (last 12 mo), in individuals without previous falls, and for FRAX hip fracture probability
Individual FRAX variables
- All FRAX variables except parental hip fracture showed a positive relationship with fall-associated hospitalization
Original publication
Fracture probability is predictive of fall-associated hospitalization: the Manitoba BMD Registry. J Bone Miner Res. Published 28 January 2026. doi:10.
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