Estimating the risk of cardiovascular outcomes and all‐cause mortality in individuals with type 2 diabetes: Validation of the UKPDS outcomes model using TECOS and EXSCEL data
Authors' conclusion
UKPDS-OM2 accurately simulated relative risks between randomized groups in both trials. The proportion of participants with the primary outcome was accurately estimated in both TECOS arms but underestimated by around one-third in both EXSCEL arms.
Study context
- Population
- People with T2D in the TECOS and EXSCEL trials14,671 TECOS, 14,752 EXSCEL · People with T2D in the TECOS 14,671 · EXSCEL 14,752
- Comparison
- UKPDS-OM2 simulated vs observed event rates in TECOS and EXSCEL
- Outcome
- Primary outcome (CV death, myocardial infarction (MI) or stroke), observed vs simulated
Methodological detailsexternal validation using TECOS and EXSCEL trial data
- External validation using TECOS and EXSCEL trial data
Performance
As reported in the abstract
Hazard ratio (95% CI)
TECOS sitagliptinvs TECOS placeboobserved
0.98(0.89–1.08)
EXSCEL exenatidevs EXSCEL placeboobserved
0.92(0.84–1.01)
Relative risk
- TECOS sitagliptin vs TECOS placebo · UKPDS-OM2 simulated
- 1.00
- EXSCEL exenatide vs EXSCEL placebo · UKPDS-OM2 simulated
- 0.98
Parts of this Brief are withheld: the automatic checks could not confirm them against the abstract.
Original publication
Estimating the risk of cardiovascular outcomes and all‐cause mortality in individuals with type 2 diabetes: Validation of the UKPDS outcomes model using TECOS and EXSCEL data. Diabetes Obes Metab. Published 12 November 2025. doi:10.
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