Estimated Optimal Individualized Diabetes Risk Prediction From Preventive Interventions in the U.S. General Population
Authors' conclusion
We demonstrate the potential population health benefits for diabetes prevention with use of a clinical decision tool, a diabetes risk prediction model with individualized preventive intervention effects.
Study context
- Population
- US adults with prediabetes, National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) cycles 2015–2020
- Participants
- 2,778 adults
- Exposure
- Standard lifestyle (placebo) vs metformin vs intensive lifestyle vs optimal intervention
- Outcome
- Predicted risk for diabetes
- Follow-up
- 3-year
Methodological detailsrisk prediction modelling, validated T2D risk prediction model, NHANES 2015-2020
- Risk prediction modelling
- Validated T2D risk prediction model
- NHANES 2015-2020
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Mean predicted 3-year diabetes risk
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Optimal intervention strategy
- Intensive lifestyle was the optimal strategy (share of analytic sample)
- 91%
Original publication
Estimated Optimal Individualized Diabetes Risk Prediction From Preventive Interventions in the U.S. General Population. Diabetes Care. Published 2 February 2026. doi:10.
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