Enhanced prediction of abnormal glucose tolerance using an extended non-invasive risk score incorporating routine renal biochemistry
Authors' conclusion
The extended risk score incorporating clinical and routine biochemistry can be integrated into an electronic health records system to select high-risk subjects for evaluation of AGT using OGTT for prevention of diabetes.
Study context
- Population
- Community-based BHBHK-HKFDS Cohort, Hong Kong, recruited 1998–2003; Abnormal glucose tolerance (AGT) defined by 2hPG≥7.8 mmol/L during oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT)baseline data
- Participants
- 1,938 participants
- Comparison
- Extended risk score vs original non-invasive risk score
- Outcome
- AUROC for predicting AGT
Methodological detailscommunity-based cohort, internal and external validation
- Community-based cohort
- Internal and external validation
Performance
As reported in the abstract
AUROC to predict AGT
| Test or model | Value | AUC |
|---|---|---|
| Extended model | 0.778 (95% CI 0.744–0.809) | 0.778 |
| Original non-invasive risk score | 0.698 (95% CI 0.662–0.733) | 0.698 |
Value
Extended model0.778 (95% CI 0.744–0.809)
Original non-invasive risk score0.698 (95% CI 0.662–0.733)
AUC
Extended model0.778
Original non-invasive risk score0.698
- Extended model vs Original non-invasive risk score: P < 0.001
Further findings
- External validation of the extended model (independent data set)
- 0.722 · area under receiver operating characteristics (AUROC) · 95% CI 0.680 to 0.764
Net reclassification improvement (extended vs original score)
- Net reclassification improved overall
- 31.9% (p<0.001)
- Net reclassification improvement among people with AGT
- 30.8%
- Net reclassification improvement among people without AGT
- 1.1%
Calibration of the extended model
- Good calibration
- χ2=11.315, p=0.1845
Original publication
Enhanced prediction of abnormal glucose tolerance using an extended non-invasive risk score incorporating routine renal biochemistry. BMJ Open Diabetes Res Care. Published 19 February 2024. doi:10.
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