Development and validation of risk prediction models for new-onset type 2 diabetes in adults with impaired fasting glucose
Authors' conclusion
The risk prediction models and derived tools had well-validated performance to predict the 5-year risk of T2D in IFG adults.
Study context
- Population
- Individuals with impaired fasting glucose (IFG); large prospective cohort for training and internal validation, two independent cohorts for external validationderivation cohort
- Participants
- 18,384 individuals
- Comparison
- Men vs Women
- Outcome
- Prediction of new-onset T2D, evaluated by AUC
- Follow-up
- 5-year risk
Methodological detailsprospective cohort, sex-specific models, internal and external validation, multivariate Cox regression, Risk scoring system and web calculator constructed
- Prospective cohort
- Sex-specific models
- Internal and external validation
- Multivariate Cox regression
- Risk scoring system and web calculator constructed
Performance
As reported in the abstract
AUC of coefficient-based models, internal validation
| Test or model | AUC |
|---|---|
| Men | 0.741 (95% CI 0.723-0.760) |
| Women | 0.762 (95% CI 0.720-0.802) |
AUC
Men0.741 (95% CI 0.723-0.760)
Women0.762 (95% CI 0.720-0.802)
Further findings
Incident T2D · median follow-up 7.55 years
- New-onset T2D cases
- 5697
Predictors
- Age, BMI, waist circumference, diastolic blood pressure, TG, FPG and fatty liver
Original publication
Development and validation of risk prediction models for new-onset type 2 diabetes in adults with impaired fasting glucose. Diabetes Res Clin Pract. Published 7 February 2023. doi:10.
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