Development and External Validation of a Home-based Risk Prediction Model of Natural Onset of Menopause—Teuta
Authors' conclusion
We present the first internally and externally validated prediction model of natural menopause onset using readily available predictors. Validation of our model to other populations is needed.
Study context
- Population
- Community-dwelling premenopausal women aged 28 years and older, Swiss (CoLaus) and Dutch (PREVEND) studies
- Participants
- 750 vs 1,032
- Exposure
- CoLaus vs PREVEND
- CoLausn = 750
- PREVENDn = 1,032
- Outcome
- Incidence of self-reported natural menopause
Methodological detailsrisk prediction model development and external validation, backward elimination and Bayesian Model Averaging, bootstrapping internal validation
- Risk prediction model development and external validation
- Backward elimination and Bayesian Model Averaging
- Bootstrapping internal validation
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
External validation performance in PREVEND (after recalibration)
| Group | C-statistic | Expected/observed probability |
|---|---|---|
| PREVEND | 0.888 | 0.82 |
PREVEND
C-statistic0.888
Expected/observed probability0.82
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Natural menopause during follow-up · median follow-up 10.7 (CoLaus) and 9 (PREVEND) years
Original publication
Development and External Validation of a Home-based Risk Prediction Model of Natural Onset of Menopause—Teuta. J Clin Endocrinol Metab. Published 5 March 2024. doi:10.
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