Associations of longitudinal trajectories of triglyceride-glucose index combined with classical and novel obesity indices and cardiovascular disease: evidence from a nationwide prospective cohort study in China
Authors' conclusion
In this cohort study, the longitudinal trajectories of TyG and its obesity derivatives were closely associated with CVD. Comparatively, the combinations of TyG with classical obesity index WC and novel obesity index CVAI (TyG-WC and TyG-CVAI) exhibited superior performance for CVD risk assessment, with this risk primarily driven by obesity and triglycerides.
Study context
- Population
- Participants without cardiovascular disease (CVD) from the CHARLS national cohort, China
- Participants
- 3,505 non-CVD participants
- Exposure
- Poorly controlled trajectory or highest cumulative exposure vs well-controlled trajectory and low exposure of triglyceride glucose (TyG) index and its obesity derivatives
- Outcome
- CVD
- Follow-up
- 8-year median
Methodological detailsnationwide, CHARLS national cohort, longitudinal trajectories (Waves 1 and 3), logistic regression, spline regression and weighted quantile sum regression
- Nationwide
- CHARLS national cohort
- Longitudinal trajectories (Waves 1 and 3)
- Logistic regression, spline regression and weighted quantile sum regression
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
CVD (poorly controlled trajectory OR / highest cumulative exposure OR)
- TyG index
- OR 1.61/1.40
- TyG-BMI
- OR 2.13/1.70
- TyG-WC
- OR 2.00/1.78
- TyG-WHtR
- OR 1.77/1.59
- TyG-WWI
- OR 1.31/1.36
- TyG-ABSI
- OR 1.37/1.30
- TyG-BRI
- OR 1.76/1.56
- TyG-CVAI
- OR 2.00/1.72
- CVD cases
- 411
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Predictive performance
- Longitudinal cumulative exposure and trajectory enhanced CVD prediction vs static baseline values
- TyG-WC and TyG-CVAI showed superior performance for CVD risk assessment
Weighted quantile sum regression: component contribution
- Cumulative exposure to obesity and triglycerides contributed most to CVD risk among all metabolic indices
Original publication
Associations of longitudinal trajectories of triglyceride-glucose index combined with classical and novel obesity indices and cardiovascular disease: evidence from a nationwide prospective cohort study in China. Cardiovasc Diabetol. Published 12 November 2025. doi:10.
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