Gestational diabetes & diabetes in pregnancy

Associations between gestational diabetes and cardiovascular disease largely operate independently of postpartum causal pathways: A population‐based cohort study in England

Diabetes Obes MetabPublished Population-based matched cohort study

Main finding · CVDResult — go to the resultAdjusted hazard ratio 1.58 95% CI 1.27–1.97

Authors' conclusion

These findings emphasise the need for comprehensive cardio metabolic screening following a pregnancy affected by GDM.

Study context

Population
Women with and without gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM), England (ELOPE-GDM study)records, matched cohort
Participants
43,572 vs 174,288
Exposure
GDM vs non-GDM
  • GDMn = 43,572
  • Non-GDMn = 174,288reference
Outcome
CVD
Methodological detailscausal mediation analysis
  • Causal mediation analysis

Main finding

As reported in the abstract

Adjusted hazard ratio

1.58

95% CI 1.27–1.97

GDMvs Non-GDM
aHR 1.58 (95% CI 1.27–1.97)

Observational data: associations, not effects.

Further findings

OutcomeEstimate
IHDaHR 1.83 (CI 1.35–2.49)
Stroke/TIAaHR 1.43 (CI 1.06–1.95)
Postpartum T2D, hypertension, dyslipidaemia or any of theseGDMvs Non-GDMOR (T2D) 13.90 (95% CI 13.19–14.51)
Postpartum T2D, hypertension, dyslipidaemia or any of theseGDMvs Non-GDMOR (hypertension) 1.87 (95% CI 1.781–1.92)
Postpartum T2D, hypertension, dyslipidaemia or any of theseGDMvs Non-GDMOR (dyslipidaemia) 1.80 (95% CI 1.76–1.84)
Postpartum T2D, hypertension, dyslipidaemia or any of theseGDMvs Non-GDMOR (any mediator) 1.67 (95% CI 1.63–1.71)

Proportion of GDM effect on cardiovascular disease (CVD) mediated by postpartum conditions

Mediated by T2D
36% (95% CI 8%-64%)
Mediated by hypertension (5%-24%)
15%
Mediated by dyslipidaemia (18%-55%)
37%
Mediated by a combination (11%-53%)
32%
  • Most of the effect of GDM on CVD not attributed to these mediators

Original publication

Associations between gestational diabetes and cardiovascular disease largely operate independently of postpartum causal pathways: A population‐based cohort study in England. Diabetes Obes Metab. Published 5 November 2025. doi:10.1111/dom.70210

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