Association of Water Arsenic With Incident Diabetes in U.S. Adults: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and the Strong Heart Study
Authors' conclusion
Low to moderate water arsenic levels (<10 µg/L) were associated with T2D incidence in the SHFS and MESA cohorts.
Study context
- Population
- U.S. adults free of T2D at baseline with water arsenic estimates available (baseline 2001–2003 Strong Heart Family Study (SHFS), 2000–2002 Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA))
- Participants
- 1,791 vs 5,777
- Exposure
- Water arsenic, per doubling
- SHFSn = 1,791
- MESAn = 5,777
- Outcome
- Incident T2D
- Follow-up
- Followed until 2010 (SHFS) or 2019 (MESA)
Methodological detailstwo cohorts (SHFS and MESA), meta-analysis across cohorts, Cox proportional hazards mixed-effects models, adjusted for sex, baseline age, BMI, smoking status and education
- Two cohorts (SHFS and MESA)
- Meta-analysis across cohorts
- Cox proportional hazards mixed-effects models
- Adjusted for sex, baseline age, BMI, smoking status and education
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Incident T2D per doubling in CWS arsenic
Hazard ratio per doubling in CWS arsenic (95% CI)
Meta-analysis (SHFS + MESA)
1.10(1.02–1.18)
SHFS
1.09(0.95–1.26)
MESA
1.10(1.01–1.20)
Per doubling in CWS arsenic, as printed
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
| Outcome | HR (95% CI) | |
|---|---|---|
| Incident T2D per doubling in private well arsenic (SHFS) | 1.05 (0.95–1.16) | |
| 0.512Hazard ratio (log scale) |
| Outcome | SHFS | MESA |
|---|---|---|
| T2D incidence | 24.4 cases per 1,000 person-years | 11.2 per 1,000 person-years |
| Mean follow-up | 5.6 years | 14.0 years |
Effect modification by BMI and sex
- Statistical interaction and larger HRs for participants with BMI <25 kg/m² and female participants
Original publication
Association of Water Arsenic With Incident Diabetes in U.S. Adults: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and the Strong Heart Study. Diabetes Care. Published 24 April 2024. doi:10.
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