Association of hypertension and long‐term blood pressure changes with new‐onset diabetes in the elderly: A 10‐year cohort study
Authors' conclusion
Significant predictors of NOD included age, gender, baseline hypertension and blood pressure management. Maintaining SBP consistently below 130 mmHg may be an effective strategy to reduce the incidence of NOD in the general elderly population.
Study context
- Population
- Adults aged ≥60 years free of diabetes in 2008, Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey; follow-up every 2–3 years
- Participants
- 1,380 adults
- Exposure
- Average systolic blood pressure (SBP) categories in 2008 and 2011 vs SBP <120 mmHg
- Outcome
- New-onset diabetes (NOD)
Methodological detailsmultivariable-adjusted Cox regression
- Multivariable-adjusted Cox regression
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
NOD by SBP management level (2008 and 2011), onset tracked 2011–2018
Each group vs SBP <120 mmHgEstimate (95% CI)P value
SBP ≥140 mmHghighest risk group
adjusted HR 8.492(2.048–35.217)
P = 0.003SBP 130-139.9 mmHg
adjusted HR 5.065(1.186–21.633)
P = 0.029SBP 120-129.9 mmHg
HR 2.730(0.597–12.481)
P = 0.195Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Incident diabetes by 2018 · 10 years
- Developed diabetes
- 102
- Remained without diabetes
- 1278
- Cumulative diabetes prevalence at 3 years
- 3.1%
- Cumulative diabetes prevalence at 10 years
- 7.4%
Hypertension prevalence · baseline to 10 years
- Hypertension prevalence at baseline
- 20.9%
- Hypertension prevalence at 10 years
- 41.0%
- Higher rates in those diagnosed with diabetes during follow-up
Hypertension combined with overweight/obesity and new-onset diabetes (NOD)
- HR
- 2.837 (1.680-4.792) (95% CI)
Consistently high SBP (≥130 mmHg) and NOD
- Adjusted HR (95% CI), P
- 3.464 (1.464-8.196), P = .005
Independent predictors of NOD
- Age, gender, baseline hypertension and SBP identified as independent predictors
Original publication
Association of hypertension and long‐term blood pressure changes with new‐onset diabetes in the elderly: A 10‐year cohort study. Diabetes Obes Metab. Published 1 October 2024. doi:10.
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