Type 2 & other diabetes

Association of Body Mass Index and Its Change With Incident Diabetes Mellitus

J Clin Endocrinol MetabPublished Retrospective cohort study

Authors' conclusion

Our findings offer novel insights into improving an optimal bodyweight management strategy to prevent the development of DM.

Study context

Population
Individuals without prior diabetes mellitus (DM) or glucose-lowering medication use, JMDC Claims Database; median age 44 years, 57.5% men
Participants
3,400,303 individuals
Exposure
Body mass index (BMI) change ≥+5.0% or ≤−5.0% vs stable BMI over 1 year
Outcome
Incident DM
Methodological detailsobservational, claims database (JMDC), 2005–2021
  • Observational
  • Claims database (JMDC), 2005–2021

Main finding

As reported in the abstract

Incident DM by BMI change
Each group vs −5.0% to +5.0%Relative risk (95% CI)
≥+5.0%
1.33(1.31–1.36)
≤−5.0%
0.82(0.80–0.84)

Observational data: associations, not effects.

Further findings

BMI reduction by baseline BMI category (underweight, normal weight, overweight, obese)

Reducing BMI lowered DM risk in normal weight, overweight and obese people, but raised DM risk in underweight people

Original publication

Association of Body Mass Index and Its Change With Incident Diabetes Mellitus. J Clin Endocrinol Metab. Published 23 June 2023. doi:10.1210/clinem/dgad374

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