Association between estimated glucose disposal rate and incident heart failure in patients with coronary heart disease: a prospective cohort study
Authors' conclusion
eGDR is closely linked to HF risk in the CHD population and exhibits stronger predictive power than other IR indices. Notably, eGDR levels change up to 15 years before the occurrence of HF, suggesting that eGDR could serve as an early predictor for HF among CHD patients.
Study context
- Population
- Patients with coronary heart disease, UK Biobank3,364 developed heart failure (HF)
- Participants
- 20,329 patients
- Exposure
- Estimated glucose disposal rate (eGDR) and other IR indices vs incident HF
- Outcome
- Incident HF
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Incident HF per 1-unit increase in eGDR
HR per 1-unit eGDR increase (51% risk reduction)
HR = 0.49, 95% CI 0.38-0.64
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Discrimination of 10-year HF risk (ROC)
- eGDR AUC, highest among IR indices
- AUC = 0.612, 95% CI 0.601-0.623
eGDR trajectory before HF onset · 15 years before HF onset
- eGDR remained low starting 15 years before HF onset in those who developed HF
Original publication
Association between estimated glucose disposal rate and incident heart failure in patients with coronary heart disease: a prospective cohort study. Cardiovasc Diabetol. Published 28 March 2026. doi:10.
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