Association between the changes in the estimated glucose disposal rate and new‐onset cardiovascular disease in middle‐aged and elderly individuals: A nationwide prospective cohort study in China
Main finding · New-onset CVDResult — go to the resultHazard ratio 2.51 95% CI 2.04–3.09Authors' conclusion
Sustained low eGDR was related to an increased risk of new-onset CVD in middle-aged and elderly population. Continuous monitoring of eGDR significantly enhances the accuracy of new-onset CVD risk stratification, which may reduce the incidence of new-onset CVD.
Study context
- Population
- Middle-aged and elderly participants without cardiovascular disease (CVD) at baseline, China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS)
- Participants
- 2,895 participants
- Exposure
- Consistently low eGDR vs other eGDR change patterns
- Outcome
- New-onset CVD
- Follow-up
- Mean 4.42 years
Methodological detailsnationwide, K-means clustering, cumulative eGDR
- Nationwide
- K-means clustering
- Cumulative eGDR
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Hazard ratio
2.51
95% CI 2.04–3.09
Consistently low eGDRvs other eGDR change patterns
HR 2.51 (95% CI 2.04–3.09)
- CVD cases
- 581
- Heart disease cases
- 389
- Stroke cases
- 249
- Stepwise increase of outcomes with increased cumulative eGDR
- P for trend < 0.001
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Predictive value: cumulative eGDR vs eGDR and TyG
- Cumulative eGDR had greater predictive effect than eGDR and TyG by AUC, integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) and net reclassification improvement (NRI)
Original publication
Association between the changes in the estimated glucose disposal rate and new‐onset cardiovascular disease in middle‐aged and elderly individuals: A nationwide prospective cohort study in China. Diabetes Obes Metab. Published 6 January 2025. doi:10.
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