The predictive value of estimated glucose disposal rate and its association with myocardial infarction, heart failure, atrial fibrillation and ischemic stroke
Authors' conclusion
eGDR was inversely associated with the incidence of MI, HF, AF and ischemic stroke in the general population. eGDR could serve as a more valuable predictive indicator than TyG, TyG-WC, TyG-BMI, TyG-WHtR, TG/HDL-C and METS-IR for CVD events in clinical practice.
Study context
- Population
- General population, UK Biobank
- Participants
- 360,953 participants
- Exposure
- Highest vs lowest quartile of estimated glucose disposal rate (eGDR)
- Outcome
- Incidence of MI, HF, AF and ischemic stroke
- Follow-up
- Median 13.8 years
Methodological detailsUK Biobank, linked hospital records, Cox proportional hazards model, restricted cubic spline model, ROC/AUC comparison
- UK Biobank
- Linked hospital records
- Cox proportional hazards model
- Restricted cubic spline model
- ROC/AUC comparison
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
MI, HF, AF and ischemic stroke
Each group vs lowest quartileEstimate (95% CI)
Highest quartile
aHR (MI) 0.59(0.51–0.67)
Highest quartile
aHR (HF) 0.66(0.56–0.76)
Highest quartile
aHR (AF) 0.88(0.80–0.98)
Highest quartile
aHR (ischemic stroke) 0.73(0.61–0.89)
- Myocardial infarction (MI) events
- 12 698
- Heart failure (HF) events
- 10 360
- Atrial fibrillation (AF) events
- 23 638
- Ischemic stroke events
- 6512
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Predictive value of eGDR vs triglyceride-glucose (TyG), TyG-WC, TyG-BMI, TyG-WHtR, triglyceride (TG)/HDL-C and metabolic score for insulin resistance (METS-IR)
- eGDR AUC for MI
- 0.661
- eGDR AUC for HF
- 0.690
- eGDR AUC for AF
- 0.653
- eGDR AUC for ischemic stroke
- 0.646
- eGDR outperformed the other insulin resistance (IR) proxies in predicting each event
Original publication
The predictive value of estimated glucose disposal rate and its association with myocardial infarction, heart failure, atrial fibrillation and ischemic stroke. Diabetes Obes Metab. Published 2 January 2025. doi:10.
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