Assessment of Differentiated Thyroid Carcinomas in French Polynesia After Atmospheric Nuclear Tests Performed by France
Authors' conclusion
This case-control study found that French nuclear tests were associated with an increase in lifetime risk of PTC in FP residents of 29 cases of PTC. This finding suggests that the number of thyroid cancer cases and the true order of magnitude of health outcomes associated with these nuclear tests were small, which may reassure populations of this Pacific territory.
Study context
- Population
- Residents of French Polynesia born and living in French Polynesia (FP), differentiated thyroid carcinoma (DTC) diagnosed 1984–2016 at age ≤55 years; 41 atmospheric nuclear tests by France 1966–1974395 of 457 eligible cases
- Participants
- 395 vs 555
- Comparison
- Thyroid radiation dose from French atmospheric nuclear tests (before age 15 years) and risk of DTC
- DTC casesn = 395
- Controlsn = 555reference
- Outcome
- Lifetime risk of DTC based on Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR) VII models
Methodological detailsextension of a 2010 case-control study, controls matched on sex and nearest birthdate (up to 2 per case), Data analyzed March 2019 through October 2021
- Extension of a 2010 case-control study
- Controls matched on sex and nearest birthdate (up to 2 per case)
- Data analyzed March 2019 through October 2021
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Excess DTC cases attributable to nuclear tests
29 cases
95% CI 8–97 cases
Share of 1524 sporadic DTC cases
2.3%
95% CI 0.6%–7.7%
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Thyroid radiation dose before age 15 years and risk of DTC
- No association; ERR per milligray
- 0.04 (95% CI, −0.09 to 0.17; P = .27)
Dose response excluding unifocal noninvasive microcarcinomas
- Significant dose response; ERR per milligray
- 0.09 (95% CI, −0.03 to 0.02; P = .02)
- Several incoherencies with the results of the initial study reduce the credibility of this result
Mean thyroid radiation dose estimate
- Mean thyroid dose estimate doubled after reassessment
- from 2 mGy to nearly 5 mGy
Original publication
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