Age‐specific incidence and prevalence of childhood type 1 diabetes: Development over four decades in Southwest Germany
Authors' conclusion
Incidence rates have doubled since the first documentation in 1987. Since 2008, the rates have remained stable at a high level without further increase. The long-term trend suggests a levelling off in incidence, with pandemic-related increases limited primarily to younger children.
Study context
- Population
- Children aged <15 years with clinically diagnosed T1D, German Diabetes Registry (DIARY), Baden-Wuerttemberg, 1987–2024
- Participants
- 11,797 children
- Outcome
- Incidence (per 100,000 person-years; crude, age- and sex-specific) and prevalence of T1D
- Follow-up
- 1987 to 2024
Methodological details38-year trend analysis, annual percent changes
- 38-year trend analysis
- Annual percent changes
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Crude incidence of T1D
- Crude incidence in 1987
- 10.1 per 100,000 children per year
- Crude incidence in 2024
- 20.2 per 100,000 children per year
- Annual increase 1987–2008, followed by a plateau through 2024
- 4.0%
- Peak incidence during COVID-19 pandemic (2021)
- 31.1 per 100,000 children per year
- Estimated prevalence as of 31 December 2024
- 0.154%
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Highest subgroup incidence: boys aged 10-14 years
- Incidence in boys aged 10-14 years
- 25.4 per 100,000 children per year
Pandemic-related increase by age
- Marked increase during the pandemic mainly in children under 10 years
Original publication
Age‐specific incidence and prevalence of childhood type 1 diabetes: Development over four decades in Southwest Germany. Diabet Med. Published 6 January 2026. doi:10.
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