Additive value of combining triglyceride-glucose index and estimated glucose disposal rate for incident stroke prediction across glycaemic-regulation subgroups: a prospective cohort of 5,789 Chinese adults
Main finding · Incident strokeResult — go to the resultHazard ratio 3.75 95% CI 2.29–6.15Authors' conclusion
Low eGDR and a low TyG-eGDR product independently predict a higher stroke risk, whereas elevated TyG predominantly increases stroke risk in individuals with AGR. Combining TyG and eGDR markedly improves stroke discrimination beyond either metric alone. Routine integration of these two inexpensive indices permits earlier, more precise risk stratification and can inform targeted interventions that substantially reduce stroke incidence.
Study context
- Population
- Stroke-free adults aged ≥ 45 years in China, including 3490 with abnormal glucose regulation (AGR) and 2296 with normal glucose regulation (NGR)
- Participants
- 5,789 adults
- Exposure
- Triglyceride-glucose (TyG) and estimated glucose disposal rate (eGDR) categories, alone and combined, and incident stroke
- Outcome
- Incident stroke
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Hazard ratio
3.75
95% CI 2.29–6.15
P = 1.6 × 10⁻⁷
High TyG + low eGDRvs Low TyG + high eGDR
HR 3.75 (95% CI 2.29–6.15); P = 1.6 × 10⁻⁷
- New stroke events
- 460
- Overall stroke incidence
- 9.93 per 1000 person-years
- Lower eGDR index and stroke risk, all populations (OR)
- 0.70 (95% CI 0.62-0.79)
- Lower TyG-eGDR index and stroke risk, all populations (OR)
- 0.72 (95% CI 0.63-0.81)
- Higher TyG index and stroke risk, AGR subgroup (OR)
- 1.24 (95% CI 1.11-1.37)
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Dose-response (RCS)
- Non-linear dose-response for TyG and TyG-eGDR with stroke
- P < 0.05
- Linear dose-response for eGDR
Discrimination of TyG + eGDR composite model
- AUC (superior discrimination)
- 0.71
Mediation analysis
- eGDR share of TyG–stroke association
- 29.99%
- TyG share of eGDR–stroke association
- 5.81%
- Comparable mediation in AGR but not NGR population
Original publication
Additive value of combining triglyceride-glucose index and estimated glucose disposal rate for incident stroke prediction across glycaemic-regulation subgroups: a prospective cohort of 5,789 Chinese adults. Cardiovasc Diabetol. Published 15 December 2025. doi:10.
Composed by AI from the published abstract and checked against it. How Briefs are made →