A New Simulation Model to Estimate the Long-term Health and Cost Outcomes of Interventions for People With Type 1 Diabetes
Authors' conclusion
Our new comprehensive type 1 diabetes simulation model can generate valid and accurate results for assessing the long-term cost-effectiveness of interventions to manage type 1 diabetes in the U.S.
Study context
- Population
- People with T1D in the U.S.; equations derived from DCCT/EDIC and Epidemiology of Diabetes Complications (EDC) study data
- Outcome
- Internal validation of model predictions
Methodological detailsmicrosimulation model development and validation, internal and external validation, US-based, case study illustration, Risk equations for 14 diabetes-related complications and mortality, 12 risk factor progression equations and one utility equation, integrated into a simulation model, Outputs: cumulative incidence of complications, life years, quality-adjusted life years, medical costs, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios
- Microsimulation model development and validation
- Internal and external validation
- US-based
- Case study illustration
- Risk equations for 14 diabetes-related complications and mortality, 12 risk factor progression equations and one utility equation, integrated into a simulation model
- Outputs: cumulative incidence of complications, life years, quality-adjusted life years, medical costs, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios
Performance
As reported in the abstract
Mean absolute percentage error across all complications
9%
Correlation of cumulative failure rates
above 0.9
Further findings
External validation
- Mixed results, with slight under- or overprediction across complications and studies
Case study
- Model illustrated estimating effects of expanding insulin pump with CGM use to all people with T1D
Original publication
A New Simulation Model to Estimate the Long-term Health and Cost Outcomes of Interventions for People With Type 1 Diabetes. Diabetes Care. Published 3 July 2025. doi:10.
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