US State-Level Prevalence of Adult Obesity by Race and Ethnicity From 1990 to 2022 and Forecasted to 2035
Authors' conclusion
While there are large differences by race and ethnicity, sex, age, and state, the prevalence of obesity is high and forecasted to continue increasing for all groups.
Study context
- Population
- US adults (≥20 years), by race and ethnicity, state, sex and age; NHANES measured BMI, BRFSS and Gallup Daily Survey self-reported data
- Participants
- 11,315,421 survey participants
- Outcome
- Obesity prevalence (BMI ≥30)
- Follow-up
- 1990–2022, forecast to 2035
Methodological detailsspatiotemporal gaussian process regression, ensemble of annualized rate of change and meta-regression bayesian spline models, bias-corrected self-reported BMI
- Spatiotemporal gaussian process regression
- Ensemble of annualized rate of change and meta-regression bayesian spline models
- Bias-corrected self-reported BMI
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Adult obesity prevalence, US
Adults with obesity, 2022
107 (95% UI, 101-113) million; 42.5% (95% UI, 40.2%-45.0%)
Adults with obesity, 1990
34.7 (95% UI, 31.1-38.3) million; 19.3% (95% UI, 17.3%-21.3%)
Adults with obesity, projected 2035
126 (95% UI, 118-134) million; 46.9% (95% UI, 43.9%-49.9%)
Further findings
Age-standardized prevalence by race and ethnicity and sex · 2022
- Lowest: non-Hispanic White males
- 40.1% (95% UI, 37.8%-42.5%)
- Highest: non-Hispanic Black females
- 56.9% (95% UI, 54.1%-59.9%)
State, race/ethnicity and age differences
- Prevalence highest in Midwestern and Southern states; within-state disparities by race and ethnicity larger for females than males
- Prevalence highest among middle-aged adults, with large increases at the youngest adult ages, especially for females
Original publication
US State-Level Prevalence of Adult Obesity by Race and Ethnicity From 1990 to 2022 and Forecasted to 2035. JAMA. Published 17 March 2026. doi:10.
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