Unveiling the BMI Risk Threshold for Osteoarthritis: Multi‐Database Causal and Nonlinear Evidence
Authors' conclusion
These findings suggest that OA risk awareness and weight-management strategies should begin before BMI reaches the high range, particularly among individuals with BMI exceeding 24.00 kg/m2.
Study context
- Population
- Data from Global burden of disease 2021, NHANES 2007–2018 and Genome-Wide Association Studies
- Exposure
- BMI categories defined by thresholds for osteoarthritis (OA)
- Outcome
- Nonlinear relationship between BMI and OA, and BMI thresholds
Methodological detailsgeneralized additive model, segmented logistic regression, Mendelian randomization
- Generalized additive model
- Segmented logistic regression
- Mendelian randomization
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
OA prevalence by BMI (segmented logistic regression)
Odds ratio per unit increase in BMI (95% CI)
BMI 24.00–41.58 kg/m²
1.022(1.003–1.041)
BMI >41.58 kg/m²
1.055(1.022–1.090)
- OA prevalence rose nonlinearly with BMI; breakpoints
- 24.00 and 41.58 kg/m²
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Knee OA (Mendelian randomization)
- BMI causally associated with knee OA, OR
- 1.63 (1.50-1.77) (95% CI)
Hip OA (Mendelian randomization)
- BMI causally associated with hip OA, OR
- 1.54 (1.40-1.70) (95% CI)
Susceptibility to knee OA
- Women and individuals aged ≥ 45 years exhibited higher susceptibility to knee OA
Age-standardized prevalence and years lived with disability rates for OA · 1990 to 2021
- Highest in regions with high SDI
Original publication
Unveiling the BMI Risk Threshold for Osteoarthritis: Multi‐Database Causal and Nonlinear Evidence. Diabetes Obes Metab. Published 31 May 2026. doi:10.
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