Triglyceride-glucose-related indices and risk of cardiovascular disease and mortality in individuals with cardiovascular–kidney–metabolic (cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic (CKM)) syndrome stages 0–3: a prospective cohort study of 282,920 participants in the UK Biobank
Main finding · Overall CVDResult — go to the resultHazard ratio (TyG index) 1.30 95% CI 1.25–1.35Authors' conclusion
Higher TyG-related indices, especially TyG-BMI, TyG-WC, and TyG-WHtR, were significantly associated with a higher risk of incident CVD and mortality in individuals with CKM syndrome stage 0 to 3. Integrating TyG indices with obesity measures could enhance the incremental predictive performance for prognostic outcomes in CKM syndrome patients.
Study context
- Population
- UK Biobank participants with CKM syndrome stages 0–3, free of cardiovascular disease (CVD) at baseline
- Participants
- 282,920 participants
- Exposure
- Highest vs lowest quartile of triglyceride-glucose (TyG)-related indices
- Outcome
- Overall CVD, CHD, stroke, all-cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality
- Follow-up
- Median 13.6 years
Methodological detailsUK Biobank
- UK Biobank
Main finding
Overall CVD
Hazard ratio (TyG index)
1.30
95% CI 1.25–1.35
Highest quartilevs Lowest quartile
HR (TyG index) 1.30 (95% CI 1.25–1.35)
As reported in the abstract
- Consistent positive association with overall CVD, TyG-BMI: HR
- 1.49 (95% CI 1.43-1.55)
- Consistent positive association with overall CVD, TyG-waist circumference (TyG-WC): HR
- 1.58 (95% CI 1.51-1.65)
- Consistent positive association with overall CVD, TyG-waist-to-height ratio (TyG-WHtR): HR
- 1.58 (95% CI 1.51-1.65)
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
| Outcome | HR (95% CI) | |
|---|---|---|
| All-cause mortalityHighest TyG-BMI quartilevs Lowest quartileTyG-BMI | 1.11 (1.06–1.16) | |
| All-cause mortalityHighest TyG-WC quartilevs Lowest quartileTyG-WC | 1.24 (1.18–1.31) | |
| All-cause mortalityHighest TyG-WHtR quartilevs Lowest quartileTyG-WHtR | 1.18 (1.13–1.24) | |
| Cardiovascular mortalityHighest TyG-BMI quartilevs Lowest quartileTyG-BMI | 1.42 (1.27–1.59) | |
| Cardiovascular mortalityHighest TyG-WC quartilevs Lowest quartileTyG-WC | 1.51 (1.33–1.72) | |
| Cardiovascular mortalityHighest TyG-WHtR quartilevs Lowest quartileTyG-WHtR | 1.48 (1.31–1.67) | |
| 0.512Hazard ratio (log scale) |
- All-cause mortality — All-cause deaths
- 19,381
- Cardiovascular mortality — Cardiovascular deaths
- 3,466
Cardiovascular mortality
- Associations with cardiovascular mortality predominantly linear
Coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke events
- CHD
- 21,658
- Strokes
- 6,717
Incremental predictive performance
- TyG-WHtR, TyG-WC and TyG-BMI exhibited significantly higher net reclassification index (NRI), integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) and AUC values
Original publication
Triglyceride-glucose-related indices and risk of cardiovascular disease and mortality in individuals with cardiovascular–kidney–metabolic (CKM) syndrome stages 0–3: a prospective cohort study of 282,920 participants in the UK Biobank. Cardiovasc Diabetol. Published 10 July 2025. doi:10. 1186/ s12933-025-02842-1
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