Obesity

Tirzepatide and the 10‐year predicted risk of cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes in adults with obesity and prediabetes: A post hoc analysis from the three‐year SURMOUNT ‐1 trial

Diabetes Obes MetabPublished Post hoc analysis of the SURMOUNT-1 randomised trial

Authors' conclusion

Tirzepatide treatment was associated with a reduction in the 10-year predicted risk of both cardiovascular outcomes and T2D in people with obesity and prediabetes.

Study context

Population
Adults with obesity and prediabetes at baseline, 3-year SURMOUNT-1 trial participants
Comparison
Once-weekly tirzepatide vs placebo
Primary endpoint
Change in 10-year predicted risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) (ASCVD, HF, total CVD) and T2D from validated risk engines
Follow-up
Baseline to week 176
Methodological detailsvalidated risk engines, mixed model of repeated measures
  • Validated risk engines
  • Mixed model of repeated measures

Primary result

As reported in the abstract

Mean % change in predicted 10-year ASCVD risk score (ACC/AHA equations)

Tirzepatide 5 mg

−4.6%

mean

Tirzepatide 10 mg

−7.5%

mean

Tirzepatide 15 mg

−9.2%

mean

Placebo

57.9%

mean

P < 0.0001 for all

Further findings

Mean

OutcomeTirzepatide 5 mgTirzepatide 10 mgTirzepatide 15 mgPlaceboP value
Mean % change in predicted 10-year ASCVD risk score (PREVENT equations) · baseline to week 176Tirzepatide (each dose) vs Placebo · greater reduction with tirzepatide−3.7%−6.3%−8.8%40.5%P < 0.0001 for all
Mean absolute change in T2D risk score (CMDS) · baseline to week 176Tirzepatide (each dose) vs Placebo · greater reduction with tirzepatide−17.0%−19.6%−19.5%−4.3%P < 0.0001

Original publication

Tirzepatide and the 10‐year predicted risk of cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes in adults with obesity and prediabetes: A post hoc analysis from the three‐year SURMOUNT ‐1 trial. Diabetes Obes Metab. Published 29 September 2025. doi:10.1111/dom.70143

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