The relationship between fall risk, trochanteric soft tissue thickness, and hip fracture risk in older adults
Authors' conclusion
In conclusion, fall probability significantly improves hip fracture prediction beyond FRAX, particularly in men.
Study context
- Population
- Older adults from the AGES-Reykjavik study (58% women)case-cohort: 698 hip fractures, 1348 controls
- Participants
- 3,242 adults
- Exposure
- Fall probability (± tissue thickness (TST)) combined with FRAX vs FRAX alone for hip fracture prediction
- Outcome
- Hip fracture prediction (time-dependent AUC) of fall probability and TST combined with FRAX vs FRAX alone
- Follow-up
- 5-, 10- and 16-yr
Methodological detailspopulation-based (AGES-Reykjavik)
- Population-based (AGES-Reykjavik)
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Time-dependent AUC for 10-yr hip fracture risk, fall probability added to FRAX · median 10 yr
| Group | Value | AUC |
|---|---|---|
| Men | 0.83 (95% CI 0.79–0.87) | 0.83 |
| Women | 0.75 (95% CI 0.72–0.78) | 0.75 |
Value
Men0.83 (95% CI 0.79–0.87)
Women0.75 (95% CI 0.72–0.78)
AUC
Men0.83
Women0.75
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Repeated falls (≥2 in 12 mo) at follow-up · ≈5 yr
- Individuals with ≥2 falls in the past year
- 295
- Best model for future falls: timed up-and-go test, fall history and grip strength
TST and hip fracture risk
- Adding TST to fall probability + FRAX in women did not enhance time-dependent AUC
- P > 0.10
- Lower TST linked to higher hip fracture risk in women but not men
Original publication
The relationship between fall risk, trochanteric soft tissue thickness, and hip fracture risk in older adults. J Bone Miner Res. Published 31 October 2025. doi:10.
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