Secular Trends in Hip Fracture Mortality and Predictors of Mortality From the NSQIP Database
Authors' conclusion
Thirty-day mortality after hip fracture surgery decreased significantly from 2011 to 2017. Readily available clinical risk factors predict mortality preoperatively and on discharge. While most predictors are nonmodifiable, the calculators may better inform clinical decision-making.
Study context
- Population
- Patients undergoing hip fracture surgery, 2011–2017 National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database
- Participants
- 84,824 surgical cases
- Outcome
- 30-day mortality after hip fracture surgery (secular trends)
- Follow-up
- 30 days
Methodological detailsNational Surgical Quality Improvement Program database, risk prediction model development
- National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database
- Risk prediction model development
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
30-day mortality · 2011-2017
Overall 30-day mortality
6.8%
30-day mortality decreased from 2011 to 2017
8.1% to 6.5%
P < .001
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Preoperative predictors of 30-day mortality · admission
- Significant predictors: male gender, age, lower BMI, White race, poorer functional health status, higher creatinine, lower hematocrit, >10% weight loss in past 6 months, congestive HF within 30 days before surgery, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease
On-discharge predictors of 30-day mortality
- Preoperative predictors except White race, hematocrit and >10% weight loss, plus unplanned intubation, cerebrovascular accident, MI and pneumonia
Preoperative risk calculator performance
- Variables
- 10
- AUC
- 0.739
- Model fit R2
- 0.9716
- Parsimonious
On-discharge risk calculator performance
- Variables
- 11
- AUC
- 0.800
- R2
- 0.9924
Original publication
Secular Trends in Hip Fracture Mortality and Predictors of Mortality From the NSQIP Database. J Clin Endocrinol Metab. Published 21 February 2025. doi:10.
Composed by AI from the published abstract and checked against it. How Briefs are made →