Real‐world predictors of progression to type 2 diabetes among adults with prediabetes
Authors' conclusion
Among patients with prediabetes, age 35-64 years, obesity, CVD, OSA, MASH, and neuropathy in the year before progression are associated with progression to T2D.
Study context
- Population
- Adults with prediabetes, US claims and EMR-linked data, January 1, 2016, through January 31, 2024
- Participants
- 39,281 vs 58,751
- Comparison
- T2D cases vs controls
- T2D casesn = 39,281
- Controlsn = 58,751reference
- Outcome
- Predictors of progression to T2D (demographic and clinical characteristics in the year before progression)
- Follow-up
- 1-year baseline
Methodological detailsUS claims and EMR-linked data
- US claims and EMR-linked data
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Predictors of progression to T2D · year before progression
- Age 35-44 vs 18-34 years, OR
- 1.37
- Age 45-54 vs 18-34 years, OR
- 1.49
- Age 55-64 vs 18-34 years, OR
- 1.33
- Obesity, OR
- 1.45
- Cardiovascular disease (CVD), OR
- 1.64
- Obstructive sleep apnea, OR
- 1.36
- MASH, OR
- 1.37
- Neuropathy, OR
- 1.19
- Black vs White, OR
- 1.27
- Hispanic vs White, OR
- 1.21
- All p
- p < 0.0001
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Baseline comorbidities · 1-year baseline
- T2D cases had a higher prevalence of obesity, CVD and obstructive sleep apnea than controls
- Demographic characteristics similar for cases and controls overall, by sex and by race/ethnicity
- Comorbidity patterns varied by sex and race/ethnicity
- Race/ethnicity data available for 62% of the study sample
Original publication
Real‐world predictors of progression to type 2 diabetes among adults with prediabetes. Diabetes Obes Metab. Published 23 February 2026. doi:10.
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