Osteoporosis, bone & mineral

Predictive capacity of fracture risk assessment tools: overview of systematic reviews

Osteoporos IntPublished Overview of systematic reviews

Authors' conclusion

The vast majority of the models performance is within the range of 0.7 and 0.75.

Study context

Population
Systematic reviews (SRs) of fracture risk prediction tools in men and women with fractures in the general adult population26 tools identified
Comparison
Fracture risk prediction tools
Outcome
AUC (ROC analysis) for predicted fracture risk within a specified timeframe

Main finding

As reported in the abstract

AUC of fracture risk tools
GroupAUC/C indexAUC
FRAX0.58 to 0.90— not stated in the abstract
Garvan Model— not stated in the abstract0.57 to 0.84

AUC/C index

FRAX0.58 to 0.90
Garvan Model— not stated in the abstract

AUC

FRAX— not stated in the abstract
Garvan Model0.57 to 0.84

— not stated in the abstract

AUC range across all tools
0.58 to 0.90
Most models within AUC range
0.7 and 0.75

Further findings

Prediction variables across tools

Total different prediction variables
21,717
BWC model predictor variables
1
GSOS tool predictor variables (including many individual SNPs)
21,717

Original publication

Predictive capacity of fracture risk assessment tools: overview of systematic reviews. Osteoporos Int. Published 8 September 2025. doi:10.1007/s00198-025-07642-7

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