Development of a Clinical Prediction Model for Diabetes in Chronic Pancreatitis: The PREDICT3c Study
Authors' conclusion
Multiple factors are associated with diabetes in CP, including canonical risk factors for type 2 diabetes and features associated with pancreatitis severity. This study lays the groundwork for the future development of models integrating clinical and nonclinical data to identify patients with CP at risk for diabetes and identifies modifiable risk factors (obesity, smoking) on which to focus for diabetes prevention.
Study context
- Population
- Individuals with chronic pancreatitis (CP) enrolled in the PROCEED study276 with diabetes
- Participants
- 645 individuals
- Outcome
- Independent risk factors for diabetes in CP
Methodological detailsprediction model development, univariable and multivariable regression, cross validation
- Prediction model development
- Univariable and multivariable regression
- Cross validation
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Independent correlates of diabetes in CP
Model AUROC
0.745
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Exploratory: by timing of diabetes relative to pancreatitis diagnosis
- T2D risk factors predominant for diabetes occurring before pancreatitis
- Pancreatic disease-related factors predominant for diabetes occurring after pancreatitis
- Exploratory analyses
Original publication
Development of a Clinical Prediction Model for Diabetes in Chronic Pancreatitis: The PREDICT3c Study. Diabetes Care. Published 16 November 2022. doi:10.
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