Type 2 & other diabetes

Pancreatic fat and the risk of future dysglycemia: a systematic review and meta-analysis

J Clin Endocrinol MetabPublished Systematic review and meta-analysis of longitudinal observational studies

Authors' conclusion

Pancreatic fat was associated with adverse future glycemic outcomes across multiple analytical contexts.

Study context

Population
Longitudinal observational studies assessing pancreatic fat at baseline and reporting incident T2D and/or glycemic progression; databases searched to March 1, 202610 studies
Comparison
Higher vs lower pancreatic fat burden
Outcome
Incident T2D (primary binary meta-analysis)
Methodological detailsNewcastle-Ottawa Scale quality assessment, exploratory narrative synthesis in lean populations
  • Newcastle-Ottawa Scale quality assessment
  • Exploratory narrative synthesis in lean populations

Pooled result

As reported in the abstract

Incident T2D, higher pancreatic fat burden (primary binary meta-analysis, 5 studies)

Pooled effect estimate

2.56

95% CI

1.27-5.14

I2

93.3%

Further pooled results

Incident T2D, excluding 1 influential US-based study

Pooled effect estimate
1.45
95% CI
1.23-1.73
I2
10.2%
  • Heterogeneity attenuated, association preserved

Incident T2D, continuous analysis (3 studies)

Effect estimate
1.17
95% CI
1.04-1.32
I2
79.2%
  • Exposure scales not directly comparable

Glycemic progression (2 studies)

Effect estimate
1.96
95% CI
1.10-3.48
I2
73.2%

Lean populations (2 analytical contexts, narrative synthesis)

Directionally consistent with the overall findings
  • Exploratory

Original publication

Pancreatic fat and the risk of future dysglycemia: a systematic review and meta-analysis. J Clin Endocrinol Metab. Published 8 June 2026. doi:10.1210/clinem/dgag222

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