Minimal or absent tumor desmoplasia predicts lower recurrence risk in papillary thyroid carcinoma
Authors' conclusion
Desmoplasia is an independent predictor of recurrence in intermediate-risk PTC. Patients with minimal or no desmoplasia have an extremely low risk of recurrence. These findings support the potential role of desmoplasia as a prognostic feature in risk stratification and personalized management of intermediate-risk PTC.
Study context
- Population
- Intermediate-risk papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) with excellent or indeterminate response to initial therapy at 12 months; desmoplasia graded on a semi-quantitative 4-point scale on H&E sections by two pathologists
- Participants
- 121 participants
- Exposure
- Grade of tumour desmoplasia
- Outcome
- Biochemical or structural recurrence
Methodological detailssingle tertiary endocrine centre, follow-up ≥36 months
- Single tertiary endocrine centre
- Follow-up ≥36 months
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Recurrence
Estimate (95% CI)P value
Desmoplasia
OR 2.99(1.51–6.34)
P < 0.01Severevs Mildrecurrence-free survival, Kaplan-Meier analysis
HR 3.00(1.45–6.24)
P = 0.003- ROC analysis: optimal cut-off for predicting recurrence
- grade 2
- NPV in absent or mild desmoplasia
- 95%
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Original publication
Minimal or absent tumor desmoplasia predicts lower recurrence risk in papillary thyroid carcinoma. Eur Thyroid J. Published 15 October 2025. doi:10.
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