Machine Learning Prediction of Pancreatitis Risk With Antithyroid Drugs: A Nationwide Retrospective Observational Study
Authors' conclusion
Although the risk of experiencing AP was not increased by MMI use, propylthiouracil use increased and propranolol use decreased the risk of experiencing AP in patients with hyperthyroidism. Although drug-induced AP is relatively rare, a firm understanding of the drugs associated with the condition should alert the clinician to appropriately diagnose and treat patients.
Study context
- Population
- Individuals diagnosed with hyperthyroidism (ICD-10 codes), national database of >85 million citizen records, 2017–2022
- Participants
- 1,329,934 individuals
- Exposure
- MMI, propylthiouracil and propranolol use and acute pancreatitis (AP) risk in hyperthyroidism
- Outcome
- Diagnosis of acute pancreatitis (AP) after hyperthyroidism diagnosis
Methodological detailsnationwide, population-based, machine learning (test-train technique) in Cox regression models
- Nationwide
- Population-based
- Machine learning (test-train technique) in Cox regression models
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Propylthiouracil use increased probability of AP diagnosis 0.10-fold (10%)
P .0009
Propranolol use decreased probability of AP 0.5-fold (5%)
P .032
Model predictive success rate
52.2%
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
AP incidence after hyperthyroidism diagnosis
- Developed AP
- 10 815 (0.81%)
Original publication
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