Longitudinal metabolite and protein trajectories prior to diabetes mellitus diagnosis in Danish blood donors: a nested case–control study
Authors' conclusion
Systemic molecular changes manifest in plasma several years before a diabetes diagnosis. A particular subset of biomarkers shows distinct, time-dependent patterns, offering potential as predictive markers for diabetes onset. Notably, these biomarkers show shared and distinct patterns between type 1 diabetes and type 2 diabetes. After independent replication, our findings may be used to develop new clinical prediction models.
Study context
- Population
- Danish Blood Donor Study (DBDS) participants; 54 proteins and 171 metabolites and lipoprotein particles measured in three sequential samples spanning up to 11 years of follow-up
- Participants
- 324 vs 359
- Exposure
- Individuals with incident diabetes vs individuals without diabetes
- Incident diabetesn = 324
- Without diabetesn = 359reference
- Outcome
- Temporal changes in molecular biomarkers before a diabetes diagnosis (any incident diabetes, T1D and T2D)
- Follow-up
- Up to 11 years
Methodological detailslongitudinal, three sequential samples, matched for sex and birth year distribution
- Longitudinal
- Three sequential samples
- Matched for sex and birth year distribution
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Proteins whose levels changed temporally before diabetes diagnosis, significant after FDR adjustment
2
Metabolites and lipoprotein particles whose levels changed temporally before diabetes diagnosis, significant after FDR adjustment
16
Of these, not previously described
16
Biomarkers consistently higher or lower in the years before a diabetes diagnosis
75
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Temporal biomarker for T1D
- Single temporal biomarker for T1D: IL-17A/F, a cytokine associated with multiple other autoimmune diseases
10-year prediction of a diabetes diagnosis (AUC)
- AUC with clinical information and plasma glucose alone
- 0.79
- AUC with inclusion of 12 biomarkers
- 0.84
Original publication
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