Long-term impact of a sugar-sweetened beverage tax and increased physical activity on obesity and diabetes burden in Central and Eastern European Countries: a microsimulation model
Authors' conclusion
Integrating fiscal and behavioural policies could reduce the burden of obesity, T2DM, and related inequalities in CEE countries, supporting strategies aligned with the WHO and Sustainable Development Goals.
Study context
- Population
- Populations of Bulgaria, Czechia, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia (Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries)6 CEE countries
- Comparison
- 20% sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) tax combined with 15% increase in physical activity (PA)
- Outcome
- T2D cases prevented
- Follow-up
- 30 years
Methodological details30-year simulation, 6 countries, sensitivity analyses, Sensitivity analyses: SSB substitution with water, 30% fruit and vegetable subsidy
- 30-year simulation
- 6 countries
- Sensitivity analyses
- Sensitivity analyses: SSB substitution with water, 30% fruit and vegetable subsidy
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
T2D cases prevented, Slovakia
7,344
95 % UI: 4,520, 10,168
T2D cases prevented, Poland
24,142
95 % UI: 18,809, 29,474
Further findings
Time course of benefits
- Obesity reductions projected to peak in early to mid-2030s; T2D and mortality benefits accrue more gradually
Original publication
Long-term impact of a sugar-sweetened beverage tax and increased physical activity on obesity and diabetes burden in Central and Eastern European Countries: a microsimulation model. Diabetes Res Clin Pract. Published 16 November 2025. doi:10.
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