Joint association of the triglyceride–glucose index and stress hyperglycemia ratio with incidence and mortality risks of new-onset atrial fibrillation during sepsis: a retrospective cohort study

Cardiovasc DiabetolPublished Retrospective cohort study

Authors' conclusion

The TyG index and SHR were associated with the incidence of in-hospital NOAF during sepsis, although their predictive powers were limited. In septic patients with in-hospital NOAF, high levels of the TyG index and SHR were significantly associated with increased 360-day mortality risks, with their combination demonstrating superior predictive power. Joint assessments of the TyG index and SHR could help identify individuals at high risks of mortality post-discharge, enabling clinicians to prioritize follow-up care and improve patient management.

Study context

Population
Patients with sepsis, MIMIC-IV database764 developed new-onset atrial fibrillation (NOAF)
Participants
4,276 patients
Exposure
Highest vs lowest triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index, stress hyperglycemia ratio (SHR) and TyG index-SHR combination groups
Outcome
Incidence and 360-day mortality of in-hospital NOAF
Methodological detailsMIMIC-IV database, machine learning (random forest)
  • MIMIC-IV database
  • Machine learning (random forest)

Main finding

As reported in the abstract

Each group vs lowestEstimate (95% CI)
Highest
aOR (TyG index), incidence of NOAF 1.36(1.10–1.69)
Highest
aOR (SHR), incidence of NOAF 1.35(1.09–1.67)
Highest
aOR (TyG index-SHR combination), incidence of NOAF 1.58(1.23–2.02)
Highest
HR (TyG index), 360-day mortality in NOAF 1.59(1.00–2.62)
Highest
HR (SHR), 360-day mortality in NOAF 1.67(1.03–2.70)
Highest
HR (both highest TyG index and highest SHR), 360-day mortality in NOAF 1.72(1.08–2.72)

Observational data: associations, not effects.

Further findings

Prediction of 360-day mortality in septic patients with NOAF (ROC, random forest)

TyG index-SHR combination had more robust predictive power than TyG index and SHR alone
P < 0.05
Random forest: predictive capability significantly enhanced with integration of TyG index and SHR

Original publication

Joint association of the triglyceride–glucose index and stress hyperglycemia ratio with incidence and mortality risks of new-onset atrial fibrillation during sepsis: a retrospective cohort study. Cardiovasc Diabetol. Published 2 April 2025. doi:10.1186/s12933-025-02709-5

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