Insulin resistance surrogate indices and incident cardiovascular disease across cardiovascular–kidney–metabolic stages 0–3: a prospective cohort study
Authors' conclusion
Among adults with CKM syndrome stages 0-3, several IR surrogate indices were prospectively associated with incident CVD, with stronger and more consistent associations observed for TyG-based indices incorporating adiposity-related measures and for eGDR.
Study context
- Population
- Adults with CKM syndrome stages 0–3, China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS)
- Participants
- 5,528 adults
- Exposure
- Insulin resistance (IR) surrogate indices and incident cardiovascular disease (CVD)
- Outcome
- Incident CVD: self-reported physician-diagnosed heart disease or stroke
- Follow-up
- Median 7.0 years
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Incident CVD
Participants developing incident CVD
741
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Dose-response (restricted cubic splines)
- Significant overall associations for most indices; nonlinear patterns for METS-IR, CTI and eGDR
Mixture-based analyses
- Relatively larger contributions of CTI, TyG-BMI and TyG-WC
Discrimination for incident CVD
- eGDR showed the highest discrimination, followed by TyG-CVAI and TyG-WC
- Adding selected IR indices, particularly eGDR, to the covariate-based model modestly improved discrimination and reclassification
Original publication
Insulin resistance surrogate indices and incident cardiovascular disease across cardiovascular–kidney–metabolic stages 0–3: a prospective cohort study. Cardiovasc Diabetol. Published 1 July 2026. doi:10.
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