Insulin resistance quantified by estimated glucose disposal rate predicts cardiovascular disease incidence: a nationwide prospective cohort study
Main finding · Incident CVDResult — go to the resultHazard ratio 0.686 95% CI 0.545–0.862Authors' conclusion
A lower level of eGDR was found to be associated with increased risk of incident CVD, suggesting that eGDR may serve as a promising and preferable predictor for CVD.
Study context
- Population
- Participants of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) free of cardiovascular disease (CVD) with complete estimated glucose disposal rate (eGDR) data at baseline
- Participants
- 6,416 participants
- Exposure
- Highest vs lowest eGDR quartile
- Outcome
- Incident CVD (heart disease and stroke)
- Follow-up
- Median 106.5 months
Methodological detailsnationwide
- Nationwide
Main finding
Incident CVD
Hazard ratio
0.686
95% CI 0.545–0.862
Highest eGDR quartilevs Lowest quartile
HR 0.686 (95% CI 0.545–0.862)
As reported in the abstract
- Unit increasement in eGDR: 21.2% lower risk of CVD
- HR 0.788, 95% CI 0.669-0.929
- Incident CVD cases
- 1339 (20.87%)
- Significant and linear relationship between eGDR and all endpoints
- all P for nonlinear > 0.05
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Heart disease · median follow-up 106.5 months
- Unit increasement in eGDR: 18.3% decreased risk of heart disease
- HR 0.817, 95% CI 0.678-0.985
- Heart disease cases
- 1025 (15.96%)
Stroke · median follow-up 106.5 months
- Unit increasement in eGDR: 39.5% lower risk of stroke
- HR 0.705, 95% CI 0.539-0.923
- Stroke cases
- 439 (6.84%)
Predictive performance of eGDR for CVD
- AUC
- 0.712
- χ2 likelihood ratio test
- χ2 = 4.876, P = 0.771
- Net reclassification improvement (NRI) and decision curve analysis (DCA) suggested improvement from eGDR and favorable clinical efficacy of the multivariate model
Subgroups
- Trend in incident CVD risk broadly consistent with main results across subgroups
Original publication
Insulin resistance quantified by estimated glucose disposal rate predicts cardiovascular disease incidence: a nationwide prospective cohort study. Cardiovasc Diabetol. Published 13 April 2025. doi:10.
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